Hello readers Dirty Mike back at it and finallyyyyyyyy the NBA season is back after what felt like forever. This offseason was fucking wild honestly the NBA is by far the most entertaining sport to just follow with all the drama and moves. We saw we felt like an incredible amount of stars change teams and frankly change conferences with the West somehow becoming even more dominant. And of course with the start of the season presents plenty of opportunity to make money with season win totals that I like. Also for bonus I’m going to throw in a future to consider, I haven’t really dabbled in futures just because the league seems so set essentially but with futures a lot of the times it’s just about the team getting far enough and then you start hedging and make profit no matter what. So without further adieu here are the bets I like for this season.
Denver Nuggets Over 45.5 wins
Would’ve liked it at a little lower number but I’m a pretty big fan of this team. They could have the best front court in terms of +/- with Jokic and Millsap playing together and they’re both just incredible passers. I LOVE Jokic and he’ll be starting all year I think he’s a star pair him with Millsap who’s just a very good efficient player and I think they’re going to shine together. You pair them with a backcourt that’s only getting better with Jamal Murray and Gary Harris which creates a great, very spaced offense. Not to mention the Nuggets are underratedly a very deep team that goes 2, even 3 deep at some positions. This team was almost the 8th seed last year and now I legitimately think they could make the jump to a top 5 seed.
Miami Heat Over 43.5 wins
Let me start this by saying that this Heat team probably should’ve made the playoffs last year with a team that was like half D-League players. Erik Spoelstra is a phenomal coach honestly thought had they made the playoffs he should’ve won the coach of the year. With every Spo-coached team they play very good defense and now with Dragic running the team they play more of suiting fast-paced offense. Now this year Rodney McGruder is starting off hurt which doesn’t help but they’ll have Waiters (hopefully) healthy the entire year who crazily was actually the best scorer when they went on that crazy run last year. They’ll play very good defense like I said and once again they’re another very deep team (they added Olynyk in the offseason too) and I think they hit that 45 win mark.
Minnesota Timberwolves Under 47.5 wins
I know this seems like a questionable one and I think the Wolves will come very close to this but I see them in the 45-46 win mark. Adding Butler and another year in Thibodeau’s system seems like they’ll make the leap but I think they fall just short of this win total but still make the playoffs. My one main concern is that they really don’t have much shooting you can honestly say in their starting lineup they don’t have one guy you consistently have to worry about from long distance so because of that I’m going to take them under.
New Orleans Pelicans Under 39.5 wins
I know everyone loves Boogie and AD together on the same team which makes them a trendy pick to make the playoffs. But in a loaded west conference this team is going to get exposed and with that frustration I think that duo is going to fail. This team was horribly built the rest of the team sucks no other way to get around it, no depth, honestly some of the starters shouldn’t even be starters. I did really like the Ian Clark addition for the price they got him at which was one of the more underrated offseason acquisitions but besides Jrue Holiday they really don’t have much else on this team. So with the lack of talent I think they could struggle and possibly trade Boogie which I think would assure the under.
Los Angeles Clippers Over 43.5 wins
Call me crazy but I LOVE the Clippers this year I think they’re gonna sneak into the playoffs and possibly get as high as a 6th seed. This is definitely health dependent with Blake Griffin and Danilo Gallinari but people forget 2-3 years ago when CP3 was out Blake finished 3rd in the MVP voting. The CP3 trade also gave them something they’ve never had while Doc has been there…Depth. The Clippers always had one of the best starting lineups but it was the bench that always killed them and now they have those pieces. Plus on a side note Doc Rivers was the worst fucking GM ever thank god they got Jerry West to run the front office because Doc was brutal (Please lookup the Amin Elhassan video on how Doc got players it’s hysterical). I think Blake could have a potential MVP season if he stays healthy and the Clippers hit the over.
Here are some other leans that almost made the list:
Celtics Under 55.5 wins- I think they’re getting a little too much hype considering they have a lot of new pieces and they lost Bradley and Crowder who were very key pieces defensively.
Blazers over 42 wins- They were a completely different team once they got Nurkic and if he can stay healthy the entire year I think they can get over this since they only had him for after the trade deadline and were at 41 wins so I think they could hit a couple extra wins.
Jazz over 40.5 wins- Quin Snyder is a fantastic coach and his teams always play great defense and they have another deep team. I think Donovan Mitchell has a chance to be very good and potentially rookie of the year plus Ricky Rubio is another really good +/- guy who plays great defense.
Lakers under 34 wins- A little queasy on this one but I think the hype has gone a little too far to make an 8 win jump and they will not be a good defensive team at all I think so hopefully they finish in that 32-33 wins.
My 1 Future to Consider:
Bucks +6000 to win it all, if Giannis can take another step and become a legitimate MVP candidate plus another step from Thon Maker who also is gonna be really good. They will play very good defense and have a solid bench so with that if they could just get into the eastern conference finals or hell even the 2nd round you can start hedging and make money.
Thanks for reading and lets make some money this season.